Valuing mortality attributable to present and future temperature extremes in Argentina

Area of Science:

• Environmental Health
• Climate Change Impact Assessment
• Public Health Economics

Background:

• Extreme temperatures, both heat and cold, pose significant risks to human health.
• Understanding the economic burden of weather-related mortality is crucial for public health policy.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze present and future weather-related health damages from extreme temperatures in Argentina.
• To quantify the economic impact of temperature-related mortality.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a countrywide panel dataset of deaths (2010-2019) and ERA5 meteorological data.
• Employed NASA NEX-GDDP for future mortality projections under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).
• Assessed economic damages using the Value of a Statistical Life.

Main Results:

• Extreme temperatures increase all-cause mortality; hotter weather has a greater impact than colder weather.
• Older individuals face higher mortality risks. Annual damage from extreme cold is 0.64% of GDP, and from heat is 0.11% of GDP.
• Future projections under RCP8.5 indicate a 1.45% increase in total damage due to more hot days.

Conclusions:

• Extreme temperatures represent a significant present and future economic burden in Argentina.
• Climate change scenarios predict exacerbated mortality and economic damages, particularly under higher emission pathways.
• Policy interventions may be necessary to mitigate the health and economic consequences of extreme weather events.