A Predictive Model for the Early Death of Breast Cancer With Synchronous Liver Metastases: A Population-Based Study

Area of Science:

• Oncology
• Medical Statistics

Background:

• Breast cancer liver metastasis (BCLM) is a critical condition associated with poor prognosis and early mortality.
• Identifying prognostic factors and developing predictive models are crucial for effective clinical management of BCLM.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify prognostic factors for early death in patients with de novo breast cancer liver metastasis (BCLM).
• To construct and validate a predictive model (nomogram) for early mortality in BCLM patients.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of a large cohort (3711 patients) from the SEER database (2010-2015).
• Development of predictive models using histograms and stepwise regression for variable selection.
• Internal validation of the developed nomogram.

Main Results:

• Identified prognostic factors for early death in BCLM patients include age, race, tumor size, and lymph node involvement.
• A nomogram was developed, demonstrating accuracy in predicting both all-cause and cancer-specific early death.
• The study analyzed 3711 BCLM patients, with a significant proportion experiencing early death.

Conclusions:

• The study provides valuable prognostic insights for BCLM patients.
• The developed nomogram can aid clinicians in identifying high-risk individuals and optimizing treatment strategies.
• Key factors influencing early mortality in BCLM have been elucidated.