Undetected pseudoprogressions in the CeTeG/NOA-09 trial: hints from postprogression survival and MRI analyses

In the randomized CeTeG/NOA-09 trial, lomustine/temozolomide (CCNU/TMZ) was superior to TMZ therapy regarding overall survival (OS) in MGMT promotor-methylated glioblastoma. Progression-free survival (PFS) and pseudoprogression rates (about 10%) were similar in both arms. Further evaluating this discrepancy, we analyzed patterns of postprogression survival (PPS) and MRI features at first progression according to modified RANO criteria (mRANO).

We classified the patients of the CeTeG/NOA-09 trial according to long vs. short PPS employing a cut-off of 18 months and compared baseline characteristics and survival times. In patients with available MRIs and confirmed progression, the increase in T₁-enhancing, FLAIR hyperintense lesion volume and the change in ADC mean value of contrast-enhancing tumor upon progression were determined.

Patients with long PPS in the CCNU/TMZ arm had a particularly short PFS (5.6 months). PFS in this subgroup was shorter than in the long PPS subgroup of the TMZ arm (11.1 months, p = 0.01). At mRANO-defined progression, patients of the CCNU/TMZ long PPS subgroup had a significantly higher increase of mean ADC values (p = 0.015) and a tendency to a stronger volumetric increase in T₁-enhancement (p = 0.22) as compared to long PPS patients of the TMZ arm.

The combination of survival and MRI analyses identified a subgroup of CCNU/TMZ-treated patients with features that sets them apart from other patients in the trial: short first PFS despite long PPS and significant increase in mean ADC values upon mRANO-defined progression. The observed pattern is compatible with the features commonly observed in pseudoprogression suggesting mRANO-undetected pseudoprogressions in the CCNU/TMZ arm of CeTeG/NOA-09.