Assessing the phosphorus cycle in European agricultural soils: Looking beyond current national phosphorus budgets

Phosphorus (P) is an essential nutrient for all crops, yet its excess negatively affects public health, the environment, and the economy. At the same time, rock P is a critical raw material due to its importance for food production, the finite geological deposits, and its unequal regional distribution. As a consequence, nutrient management is addressed by numerous environmental policies. Process-based biogeochemical models are valuable instruments to monitor the P cycle and predict the effect of agricultural management policies. In this study, we upscale the calibrated DayCent model at European level using data-derived soil properties, advanced input data sets, and representative management practices. Our results depicted a P budget with an average P surplus (0.11 kg P ha^-1 year^-1), a total soil P (2240.0 kg P ha^-1), and available P content (77.4 kg P ha^-1) consistent with literature and national statistics. Through agricultural management scenarios, we revealed a range of potential changes in the P budget by 2030 and 2050, influenced by the interlink of P with biogeochemical carbon and nitrogen cycles. Thus, we developed a powerful assessment tool capable of i) identifying areas with P surplus or deficit at high spatial resolution of 1 km², (ii) pinpointing areas where a change in agricultural management would be most urgent to reach policy goals in terms of environmental pollution, food security and resource efficiency of a critical raw material, and iii) assessing the response of the P cycle to modifications in agricultural management.