Spatiotemporal ecosystem services: Response to structural changes (A case study in Lahijan, Iran).

Area of Science:

• Ecosystem services assessment
• Ecological network analysis
• Land use change modeling

Background:

• Ecosystems provide essential services impacting human well-being.
• Understanding ecosystem structure and function is crucial for service provision.
• Changes in land use can alter ecosystem processes and service delivery.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a unified model integrating ecosystem services valuation, ecological networks, and correlation analysis.
• To investigate changes in ecosystem structure, function, and processes.
• To quantify and predict key ecosystem services under land use change scenarios.

Main Methods:

• Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services (IVES) framework.
• Ecological Network (EN) analysis.
• Cellular Automata and Markov Chain (CA-Markov) model for land use prediction.
• Correlation analysis to link land use and ecosystem services.

Main Results:

• Quantified significant reductions in ecosystem services (carbon sequestration, soil reduction, flood mitigation) from 2000-2020.
• Predicted continued decline in ecosystem services by 2040 if current land use trends persist.
• Observed changes in land use led to reduced core forest areas, increased isolated patches, and urban/agricultural expansion.
• Demonstrated altered interactions and a reduction in overall ecosystem services (ESs).

Conclusions:

• Structural changes in ecosystems, driven by land use shifts, directly impact ecosystem services.
• Continued land use change poses a significant threat to the long-term provision of vital ecosystem services.
• The developed model effectively links land use dynamics to ecosystem service provision and ecological network changes.