Predictors of mortality among older major trauma patients

Older trauma patients have a higher mortality yet are more likely to be under-triaged compared to younger patients. Studies have suggested that current trauma team activation criteria are suboptimal for older patients.

The objective was to describe trauma care delivered, patient outcomes, and to identify variables independently associated with mortality.

We performed a health records review from 2014 to 2020 of older (age ≥ 65 years) trauma patients presenting to a level one trauma centre with any of the following: injury severity score (ISS) > 12, and all trauma team activations or admission to the trauma ward. The primary outcome was 30-day all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes included injury mechanism and trauma care delivered. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify factors independently associated with 30-day all-cause mortality. Multiple imputation was used to deal with missing data.

We enrolled 1,380 patients (mean age 80 years, mean ISS 18); 26.8% had multimorbidity (≥ 2 chronic conditions) and 65.9% met criteria for polypharmacy (≥ 5 medications). The most common mechanism was fall from standing height (61.1%). Thirty-day all-cause mortality occurred in 239 (17.3%) patients. A Glasgow coma scale (GCS) < 15 (odds ratio [OR] = 5.55; 95% CI 3.73-8.24), ISS > 15 (OR = 3.75, 95% CI 2.35-6.01), age ≥ 85 years (OR = 2.04, 95% CI 1.29-3.22), anticoagulation with a direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) or warfarin (OR = 1.59, 95% CI 1.08-2.35) and multimorbidity (OR = 1.53, 95% CI 1.06-2.22) were significantly associated with increased risk 30-day mortality (C-statistic = 0.82, 95% CI 0.79-0.85). Dementia (OR = 0.61, 95% CI 0.40-0.95) and time to CT scan > 60 min (OR = 0.50, 95% CI 0.34-0.74) were associated with decreased mortality risk.

We identified five factors associated with increased 30-day mortality in older trauma patients: GCS < 15, ISS > 15, age ≥ 85 years, anticoagulation, and multimorbidity. These factors should be considered when developing modified trauma team activation criteria for older adults.