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Cell Lineage Analyses and Gene Function Studies Using Twin-spot MARCM
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They might all be marauders.

Jeff P Hamm1

  • 1School of Psychology, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand.

Psychiatry, Psychology, and Law : an Interdisciplinary Journal of the Australian and New Zealand Association of Psychiatry, Psychology and Law
|September 25, 2023
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Most offenders operate within a defined crime range, exhibiting a marauder pattern. This study reveals the circle theory

Keywords:
circle theorycommutersgeographicalmaraudersprofilingstatistical modelling

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Area of Science:

  • Criminology
  • Geographic Profiling
  • Environmental Criminology

Background:

  • Circle theory suggests offenders operate within a defined crime range.
  • Offenders are classified as marauders (residing within the range) or commuters (residing outside).
  • The smallest enclosing circle is used to define the crime range.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To determine the failure rate of the smallest enclosing circle in identifying marauder decision patterns.
  • To assess the accuracy of circle theory in differentiating marauder and commuter offender types.
  • To propose a method for estimating an offender's true criminal territory size.

Main Methods:

  • Random simulations of marauder decision patterns were conducted.
  • Failure rates of the smallest enclosing circle were analyzed under varying numbers of offenses.
  • Published marauder vs. commuter rates were compared with predicted failure rates.

Main Results:

  • Failure rates increased with fewer offenses but remained systematic and predictable.
  • The predicted failure rates aligned with published marauder and commuter distribution rates.
  • A method for estimating offender criminal territory size was developed.

Conclusions:

  • The vast majority of offenders likely exhibit a marauder decision pattern.
  • True commuter offenders may be significantly less common than previously indicated by circle theory.
  • The accuracy of the circle test in classifying offender types needs re-evaluation, especially with limited offense data.