Predictive ability of the Desire to Avoid Pregnancy scale

Area of Science:

• Reproductive Health
• Medical Screening Tools
• Psychometrics

Background:

• A significant gap exists in reproductive health for reliable pregnancy prediction tools.
• The Desire to Avoid Pregnancy (DAP) scale is a novel measure for assessing pregnancy likelihood.
• Understanding the DAP scale's performance is crucial for its clinical implementation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the sensitivity, specificity, and predictive value of the DAP scale as a screening tool for pregnancy.
• To determine how the DAP scale's predictive ability varies across different socio-demographic factors and timeframes.

Main Methods:

• A cohort of 994 non-pregnant participants was followed for one year.
• The study assessed the DAP scale's sensitivity, specificity, AUROC, PPV, and NPV at various cut-points.
• Predictive ability was analyzed concerning socio-demographic factors and time to pregnancy (3, 6, 9, 12 months).

Main Results:

• At a cut-point of 2, the DAP scale demonstrated a sensitivity of 0.78 and specificity of 0.81, with an AUROC of 0.87.
• The positive predictive value (PPV) was 43% and the negative predictive value (NPV) was 95%.
• Baseline DAP score was the strongest predictor of pregnancy, independent of age and parity.

Conclusions:

• The DAP scale is the first validated screening tool for predicting pregnancy likelihood.
• Its predictive performance surpasses existing methods.
• The DAP scale can be implemented as a screening tool, with cut-points tailored to specific clinical needs.