A Predictive Model to Evaluate Pathologic Complete Response in Rectal Adenocarcinoma

Introduction: Neoadjuvant chemo-radiotherapy (nCRT) before surgery was a standard treatment strategy for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between the predictive factors and pathological complete response (pCR) in rectal cancer patients, especially in ultra-low ones. Method: A total of 402 patients were involved in this retrospective study. The logistic regression analyses were used to compare the different subgroups in univariate analysis. Multivariate analysis was performed to determine the independent predictive factors of pCR by using a logistic regression model. Results: A total of 402 patients received preoperative CRT. In all patients, multivariate analysis revealed that circumferential tumor extent rate (CER) (≤ 2/3cycle vs >2/3 cycle, P < .001, OR = 4.834, 95% CI: 2.309-10.121), carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level (both ≤ 5 vs pre > 5 and post ≤ 5 vs both > 5, P = .033, OR = 1.537, 95% CI: 1.035-2.281), and interval time between the end of CRT and surgery (P = .031, OR = 2.412, 95% CI: 1.086-5.358) were predictive factors for pCR. The area under the curve (AUC) of the predictive model was 0.709 (95% CI: 0.649-0.769), which was significantly higher than the CER (0.646, 95% CI: 0.584-0.709), interval time (0.563, 95% CI: 0.495-0.631) and CEA level (0.586, 95% CI: 0.518-0.655). In ultra-low rectal patients, multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that CER (≤ 2/3 cycle vs > 2/3 cycle, P = .003, OR = 7.203, 95% CI: 1.934-26.823) and mismatch repair (MMR) status (pMMR vs dMMR, P = .016, OR = 0.173, 95% CI: 0.041-0.720) were predictive factors for pCR. The AUC of the predictive model was 0.653 (95% CI: 0.474-0.832). Conclusion: New predictive models were varied by the histologic types and MMR statuses to evaluate the trend of tumor response to nCRT in all RC cases and ultra-low RC patients, which may be used to individualize stratify for selected LARC patients.