Disasters in the Northern Triangle: A Descriptive Analysis Using the EM-DAT Database 1902-2022.

Area of Science:

• Disaster Science
• Environmental Science
• Public Health

Background:

• The Northern Triangle (Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador) has experienced over a century of devastating natural disasters, resulting in significant loss of life and economic damage.
• Over 100,000 deaths and millions affected highlight the urgent need to understand disaster patterns for effective mitigation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To conduct a comprehensive descriptive analysis of all recorded disasters in Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador from 1902 to 2022.
• To identify trends in disaster frequency, severity, and economic impact within the Northern Triangle region.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) for data collection and analysis.
• Categorized disasters by frequency, severity, financial cost, country distribution, mortality, affected population, and disaster type.
• Presented findings as absolute numbers and percentages, with trends visualized over time.

Main Results:

• Recorded 359 disasters in the Northern Triangle between 1902 and 2022.
• Meteorologic events (44%) were most common, followed by transport accidents (13%).
• Meteorologic events and earthquakes caused the most severe impacts: 62% of deaths, 60% affected, and 86% of financial costs. Guatemala experienced the highest number of disasters, deaths, and affected individuals, while financial costs were evenly distributed.

Conclusions:

• Meteorologic disasters are the predominant and most severe threat in the Northern Triangle.
• Increasing severity of storms due to climate change necessitates enhanced disaster preparedness and mitigation strategies.
• Further research is needed to address data limitations and refine future disaster risk assessments.