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Updated: Jul 15, 2025

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A Simple Model of the Rise and Fall of Civilizations.

Rickard Nyman1, Paul Ormerod2,3, R Alexander Bentley4

  • 1Centre for Decision Making Uncertainty, University College London, London WC1H 0PY, UK.

Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)
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Summary

Civilizations rise and fall due to innovation processes. A model shows that increased local copying makes complex societies more vulnerable to collapse.

Keywords:
complex systemsemergenceinnovationneutral selectionspatial inequality

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Area of Science:

  • Archaeology
  • Sociology
  • Complex Systems

Background:

  • The fall of civilizations is a complex phenomenon with numerous proposed causes, ranging from environmental factors to internal societal dynamics.
  • Existing literature spans archaeology to 20th-century history, with a focus on early state societies defined by hierarchy and specialized knowledge.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose a general model for the rise and fall of ancient civilizations based on innovation processes.
  • To explore how varying agent behaviors influence societal dynamics and stability.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a computational model drawing on cumulative cultural evolution.
  • Simulated agents at multiple scales (individual to polity) with varying institutional memory, invention rates, and local/global copying propensities.

Main Results:

  • The model replicates key aspects of societal rise and fall, generating extreme hierarchies of success.
  • Results indicate that increased propensity for local copying significantly enhances societal vulnerability.

Conclusions:

  • Societal complexity and hierarchy emerge from the same innovation processes that can lead to dissolution.
  • Even minor shifts towards local copying can destabilize complex civilizations, highlighting the fragility of societal structures.