Identifying Innate Resistance Hotspots for SARS-CoV-2 Antivirals Using In Silico Protein Techniques

The development and approval of antivirals against SARS-CoV-2 has further equipped clinicians with treatment strategies against the COVID-19 pandemic, reducing deaths post-infection. Extensive clinical use of antivirals, however, can impart additional selective pressure, leading to the emergence of antiviral resistance. While we have previously characterized possible effects of circulating SARS-CoV-2 missense mutations on proteome function and stability, their direct effects on the novel antivirals remains unexplored. To address this, we have computationally calculated the consequences of mutations in the antiviral targets: RNA-dependent RNA polymerase and main protease, on target stability and interactions with their antiviral, nucleic acids, and other proteins. By analyzing circulating variants prior to antiviral approval, this work highlighted the inherent resistance potential of different genome regions. Namely, within the main protease binding site, missense mutations imparted a lower fitness cost, while the opposite was noted for the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase binding site. This suggests that resistance to nirmatrelvir/ritonavir combination treatment is more likely to occur and proliferate than that to molnupiravir. These insights are crucial both clinically in drug stewardship, and preclinically in the identification of less mutable targets for novel therapeutic design.