Development of a novel clinical support tool for active surveillance of low risk papillary thyroid cancer

Active surveillance (AS) is an alternative to surgery in select patients with very low risk papillary thyroid cancer (PTC). Many clinicians feel ill-equipped in selecting appropriate patients. We aimed to 1) Develop an evidence-based web delivered decision support tool to assist clinicians in identifying patients appropriate for AS; and 2) Evaluate the prevalence of patients suitable for AS in a tertiary high volume thyroid cancer centre.

A REDCap web based clinical support tool was developed utilising evidence-based characteristics for AS suitability available to clinicals during initial assessment. A retrospective database was interrogated for patients who underwent hemithyroidectomy between 2012 - 2021 with final histopathology demonstrating PTC. Patients with PTCs>2cm, missing data, benign disease on surgical histopathology or incidental PTC were excluded.

Between 2012 - 2021, 763 patients underwent hemithyroidectomy with final histopathology confirming PTC. Of these, 316 patients were excluded (missing data, incidental PTC, concomitant hyperparathyroidism were most common reasons for exclusion) and 114/447 remaining patients had a pre-operative fine needle aspirate (FNA) of Bethesda V or VI (high likelihood of malignancy). Using the tool, 59/114 (52%) met criteria for AS. The majority of patients were female (85% vs 15% male); median age 36 years (range 19 - 78). Following initial surgery, 10/59 patients had a completion thyroidectomy, with 4/10 demonstrating malignancy in contralateral lobe and eight of those patients undergoing I¹³¹ ablation. During a median follow up of over 3 years, 49/59 (83%) did not require further surgery or intervention with no patients developing recurrence. A subgroup analysis with second radiology assessment excluded 4/59 patients as meeting criteria for AS based on presence of ETE on preoperative ultrasound. None of these 4 patients had completion thyroidectomy.

Our clinical support tool identifies patients with PTC potentially suitable for AS which could be utilised during initial patient assessment. In a retrospective cohort of patients who had hemithyroidectomy for PTC with a pre-operative FNA diagnosis of Bethesda V or VI, 55/114 (48%) patients may have been suitable for AS. Prospective validation studies are required for implementation of the tool in clinical practice.