POCUS-first for nephrolithiasis: A Monte Carlo simulation illustrating cost savings, LOS reduction, and preventable...

Non-contrast computed tomography (NCCT) is the gold standard for nephrolithiasis evaluation in the emergency department (ED). However, Choosing Wisely guidelines recommend against ordering NCCT for patients with suspected nephrolithiasis who are <50 years old with a history of kidney stones. Our primary objective was to estimate the national annual cost savings from using a point-of-care ultrasound (POCUS)-first approach for patients with suspected nephrolithiasis meeting Choosing Wisely criteria. Our secondary objectives were to estimate reductions in ED length of stay (LOS) and preventable radiation exposure.

We created a Monte Carlo simulation using available estimates for the frequency of ED visits for nephrolithiasis and eligibility for a POCUS-first approach. The study population included all ED patients diagnosed with nephrolithiasis. Based on 1000 trials of our simulation, we estimated national cost savings in averted advanced imaging from this strategy. We applied the same model to estimate the reduction in ED LOS and preventable radiation exposure.

Using this model, we estimate a POCUS-first approach for evaluating nephrolithiasis meeting Choosing Wisely guidelines to save a mean (±SD) of $16.5 million (±$2.1 million) by avoiding 159,000 (±18,000) NCCT scans annually. This resulted in a national cumulative decrease of 166,000 (±165,000) annual bed-hours in ED LOS. Additionally, this resulted in a national cumulative reduction in radiation exposure of 1.9 million person-mSv, which could potentially prevent 232 (±81) excess cancer cases and 118 (±43) excess cancer deaths annually.

If adopted widely, a POCUS-first approach for suspected nephrolithiasis in patients meeting Choosing Wisely criteria could yield significant national cost savings and a reduction in ED LOS and preventable radiation exposure. Further research is needed to explore the barriers to widespread adoption of this clinical workflow as well as the benefits of a POCUS-first approach in other patient populations.