Expert UK consensus on the definition of high risk of recurrence in HER2-negative early breast cancer: A modified...

There is currently no standardised definition for patients at high risk of recurrence of human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative early breast cancer (eBC; stages 1-3) after surgery. This modified Delphi panel aimed to establish expert UK consensus on this definition, separately considering hormone receptor (HR)-positive and triple-negative (TN) patients.

Over three consecutive rounds, results were collected from 29, 24 and 22 UK senior breast cancer oncologists and surgeons, respectively. The first round aimed to determine key risk factors in each patient subgroup; subsequent rounds aimed to establish appropriate risk thresholds. Consensus was pre-defined as ≥70% of respondents.

Expert consensus was achieved on need to assess age, tumour size, tumour grade, number of positive lymph nodes, inflammatory breast cancer and risk prediction tools in all HER2-negative patients. There was additional agreement on use of tumour profiling tests and biomarkers in HR-positive patients, and pathologic complete response (pCR) status in TN patients. Thresholds for high recurrence risk were subsequently agreed. In HR-positive patients, these included age <35 years, tumour size >5 cm (as independent risk factors); tumour grade 3 (independently and combined with other high-risk factors); number of positive nodes ≥4 (independently) and ≥1 (combined). For TN patients, the following thresholds reached consensus, both independently and in combination with other factors: tumour size >2 cm, tumour grade 3, number of positive nodes ≥1.

The results may be a valuable reference point to guide recurrence risk assessment and decision-making after surgery in the HER2-negative eBC population.