Scaling up benthic primary productivity estimates in a large intertidal estuary using remote sensing

As two main primary producers in temperate intertidal regions, seagrass and microphytobenthos (MPB) support estuarine ecosystem functions in multiple ways including stabilizing food webs and regulating sediment resuspension among others. Monitoring estuary productivity at large scales can inform ecosystem scale responses to environmental stressors (climate change, pollution and habitat degradation). Here we use a case study to show how Sentinel-2 data can be used to estimate estuary-wide emerged and submerged gross primary productivity (GPP) on intertidal flats by coupling a new machine learning model to map seagrass and unvegetated habitats with literature-derived photosynthesis-irradiance (P - I) relationships. The model consisted of (1) supervised classification with random forest to delineate seagrass and unvegetated areas and (2) artificial neural network (ANN) regression to predict % seagrass coverage. Our seagrass delineation by supervised classification had an overall accuracy of 0.96, while the ANN regression on seagrass coverage provided high predictive accuracy (R² = 0.71 and RMSE = 0.11). The estimated GPP showed seagrass contributed slightly more to intertidal benthic productivity than MPB in the case-study estuary over the 3-year study period. This model can be used to predict the response of seagrass and MPB GPP to sea level rise, which shows that the future state may be very sensitive to increased turbidity. For example, by the year 2100, the model shows a sharp decline in productivity with sea level rise, assuming current turbidity trends, (loss of up to 52-53 % for seagrass and 23-45 % for MPB, a function of whether shoreward migration of seagrass is incorporated). However, GPP under conditions of unchanging turbidity (and no seagrass migration), exhibits minimal negative impact of sea level rise (loss of 3 % for seagrass and increase of 29 % for MPB). Therefore, controlling water turbidity might be an efficient solution to maintaining the current GPP as sea level rises.