Modelling biochemical oxygen demand in a large inland aquaculture zone of India: Implications and insights

Water quality surveillance is tough, and a specific timely management is necessary for the inland aquaculture ponds and ecology as well. Real time quality monitoring involves the study of numerous parameters includes physical (turbidity, temperature, and specific conductivity), chemical (pH, calcium, manganese, chlorides, iron, biochemical oxygen demand), and biological (bacteria and algae). It is also crucial to recognize the inter-dependence among the parameters. Alternatively, these relationships can be predicted with statistical and numerical modelling. Organic strength parameter 5-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) is a significant parameter to evaluate since its impact is very high on the quality of water, aquatic life, and other biological concerns. This study focuses on the prediction of BOD using six traditional and four boosting algorithms considering ten input physicochemical attributes. The attributes were fine-tuned for highly precise predictions by removing extreme values from the data set using data outlier treatment. The prediction results are compared using performance metrics such as coefficient of determination (R²), root mean square error (RMSE), mean square error (MSE), and mean absolute error (MAE). The findings revealed that boosting algorithms outperform the results of traditional models with the highest prediction accuracy. Among the boosting algorithms, eXtreme Gradient Boosting algorithm (XGBM) is found highly appropriate for the inland aquaculture waters with R² = 0.95, RMSE = 0.31, MSE = 0.09, MAE = 0.1. Finally, this study provides a systematic evaluation of the BOD in the aquaculture waters and has a significant contribution to water management and eco-balance.