Framework for fiscal impact analysis of managing initial caries lesions with noninvasive therapies

Evidence-based noninvasive caries therapies for initial caries lesions are available in the United States. Fundamental differences between noninvasive therapies and the traditional surgical dental approach warrant a study of the financial scalability.

The financial costs and benefits of fee-for-service clinics and payors were compared across 11 scenarios simulating the treatment of 1,000 initial caries lesions during a 3-year period. The scenarios included varying combinations of noninvasive therapies (that is, silver diamine fluoride, self-assembling peptide P₁₁-4, and glass ionomer therapeutic sealants), no treatment, and various rates of 1- through 3-surface restorations to an estimated 2022 practice model. We used a decision tree microsimulation model for deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. We derived assumptions from an initial lesion and noninvasive therapy-focused cohort study with operations data from 16 sites accepting Medicaid in Alabama as a case study and clinical data from all 92 sites.

In comparison with the 2022 practice model assumed for this study, scenarios that produce mutually beneficial results for payors' savings and clinics' net profits and profit margins include self-assembling peptide P₁₁-4, silver diamine fluoride on nonesthetic surfaces, and a mix of 3 noninvasive therapies. When considering the limited resources of chair and clinician time, the same scenarios, as well as silver diamine fluoride with restorations, emerged with substantially higher clinic net profit.

Hypothetical scenarios that include noninvasive therapies and minimize restorations achieve improved outcomes for all parties.

Payors and clinicians should explore and implement noninvasive caries therapies to improve oral health for all. This study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov. The registration number is NCT04933331.