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Evolutionary rescue under demographic and environmental stochasticity.

Kuangyi Xu1, Todd J Vision1, Maria R Servedio1

  • 1Department of Biology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA.

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Demographic and environmental stochasticity impact population survival differently. Understanding these distinct effects is crucial for predicting and managing evolutionary rescue in changing environments.

Keywords:
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Area of Science:

  • Evolutionary biology
  • Ecology
  • Population genetics

Background:

  • Populations face two main sources of random variation: demographic stochasticity (randomness in individual survival and reproduction) and environmental stochasticity (random fluctuations in environmental conditions affecting population growth).
  • These stochastic processes can influence a population's ability to adapt and persist, particularly during environmental change.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To model and compare the effects of demographic and environmental stochasticity on population survival and evolution following environmental change.
  • To investigate how genetic variance and the strength of stabilizing selection interact with different types of stochasticity.
  • To determine the implications for evolutionary rescue strategies.

Main Methods:

  • Phenotypic selection modeling was employed to simulate evolutionary responses to abrupt environmental change.
  • The study analyzed genetic and demographic dynamics under varying levels of demographic and environmental stochasticity.
  • Population survival probabilities were assessed in relation to genetic variance and selection strength.

Main Results:

  • Population survival probability under demographic stochasticity decreases sharply with stronger stabilizing selection, whereas under environmental stochasticity, it declines more gradually.
  • The optimal genetic variance for population survival shows minimal difference between demographic and environmental stochasticity.
  • Demographic stochasticity's impact is amplified in smaller populations, necessitating a slow initial decline in genetic variance for persistence.
  • Environmental stochasticity's population-size-independent effects prioritize higher initial fitness for survival.

Conclusions:

  • Explicitly distinguishing and measuring demographic versus environmental stochasticity is essential for accurate predictions of evolutionary rescue.
  • The interaction between these stochasticity types can be synergistic, further reducing population survival.
  • Management strategies for endangered populations must consider the specific type of stochasticity influencing their persistence.