Association of preoperative electrocardiographic markers with sepsis in elderly patients after general surgery

Electrocardiographic markers, as surrogates for sympathetic excitotoxicity, are widely predictive of cardiovascular adverse events, but whether these markers can predict postsurgical sepsis (SS) is unclear.

We retrospectively analyzed patients who underwent abdominal surgery from March 2013 to May 2023. We collected basic data, comorbidities, blood samples, echocardiology, electrocardiogram, and surgical data, as well as short-term outcome. The primary endpoints were postsurgical SS, in which logistic regression analyses can identify independent risk factors. The optimal cut-off value predictive postsurgical SS both P wave and PR interval were calculated in the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC).

A total of 1988 subjects were analyzed, and the incidence of postsurgical SS was 3.8%. The mean age at enrollment was 68.6 ± 7.1 years, and 53.2% of the participants were men. In the ROC analysis, the areas under the curve (AUC) for P wave and PR interval predictive postsurgical SS were 0.615 (95%CI, 0.548-0.683; p = 0.001) and 0.618 (95%CI, 0.554-0.682; p = 0.001), respectively. The P wave and PR interval predicted postoperative sepsis with optimal discrimination of 103 and 157 ms, with a sensitivity of 0.744 and 0.419, and a specificity of 0.427 and 0.760. P-wave less than 103 ms or PR interval less than 157 ms associated with a 2.06 or 2.33 fold increase occurred risk postsurgical SS.

Shorter P-wave and PR intervals were both independently associated with postsurgical SS. These preoperative electrophysiological markers could have potential useful for early recognition of postoperative SS.