Nomogram for predicting adhesive small bowel obstruction following emergency gastrointestinal surgery

Postoperative adhesions are frequent and significant complications that typically arise following abdominal surgery. Currently, the existing evidence for predicting the risk of adhesive small bowel obstruction (ASBO) after emergency gastrointestinal surgery (EGS) remains inadequate. A reliable perioperative model that quantifies the risk of ASBO after EGS serves as a practical tool for guiding individually tailored surveillance.

A consecutive series of 1296 patients who underwent EGS for radiologically confirmed bowel/visceral inflammation or perforation between 2012 and 2022 at a tertiary academic medical center were included in this study to establish a best-fit nomogram. The nomogram was externally validated by assessing discrimination and calibration using an independent cohort from a separate medical center.

A total of 116 patients (8.9%) developed at least one episode of ASBO after EGS during a median follow-up duration of 26 months. The results of multivariable logistic analysis indicated that male sex (P = 0.043), preoperative albumin level (P = 0.002), history of pelvic radiotherapy (P = 0.038), laparotomy (P = 0.044), and intensive care unit stay ≥ 72 h (P = 0.047) were identified as independent risk factors for developing ASBO. By incorporating these predictors, the developed nomogram exhibited good accuracy in risk estimation, as evidenced by a guide-corrected C-index score of 0.852 (95% CI 0.667-0.920) in the external validation cohort. Decision curve analysis and clinical impact curve demonstrated a clinically effective predictive model.

By incorporating the nomogram as a supplemental tool in perioperative management, it becomes possible to accurately assess the individual's likelihood of developing ASBOs. This quantification enables surgeons to implement appropriate preventive measures, ultimately leading to improved outcomes.