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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Jul 14, 2025

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Enhanced EPIRISK tool for rapid epidemic risk analysis.

X Chen1, M P Kunasekaran1, D Hutchinson1

  • 1Biosecurity Program, The Kirby Institute, Faculty of Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia.

Public Health
|October 5, 2023
PubMed
Summary

An enhanced EPIRISK tool now accurately predicts COVID-19 severity by incorporating leadership, culture, and universal health coverage. This improved epidemic risk assessment aids global preparedness for infectious disease outbreaks.

Keywords:
COVID-19Infectious diseasesPublic healthRisk assessment tool

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health
  • Infectious Disease Modeling

Background:

  • The original EPIRISK tool (Epidemic Risk) predicted epidemic risk but underestimated high-income countries' COVID-19 vulnerability.
  • Key factors like leadership, culture, and universal health coverage were missing from the original model.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To enhance the EPIRISK tool for accurate COVID-19 severity prediction across diverse countries.
  • To reparameterize and validate the modified EPIRISK tool against historical and COVID-19 outbreaks.

Main Methods:

  • Modified EPIRISK by adding leadership, culture, and universal health coverage as new parameters.
  • Developed and validated multiple models using historical (9 countries) and COVID-19 (7 countries) outbreak data.
  • Assessed COVID-19 severity using global incidence and mortality rates, categorized into four levels.

Main Results:

  • The enhanced EPIRISK tool incorporates 17 parameters (7 disease-related, 10 country-related).
  • An algorithm was developed for risk level classification.
  • The enhanced tool accurately predicted COVID-19 risk for all seven countries and historical outbreaks.

Conclusions:

  • The enhanced EPIRISK tool provides a robust, multifactorial approach to infectious disease outbreak risk analysis.
  • It supports rapid epidemic preparedness and response prioritization for global public health professionals.
  • The tool is valuable for early warning systems and resource allocation during outbreaks.