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Enhanced EPIRISK tool for rapid epidemic risk analysis.
X Chen1, M P Kunasekaran1, D Hutchinson1
1Biosecurity Program, The Kirby Institute, Faculty of Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia.
Public Health
|October 5, 2023
Summary
An enhanced EPIRISK tool now accurately predicts COVID-19 severity by incorporating leadership, culture, and universal health coverage. This improved epidemic risk assessment aids global preparedness for infectious disease outbreaks.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Infectious Disease Modeling
Background:
- The original EPIRISK tool (Epidemic Risk) predicted epidemic risk but underestimated high-income countries' COVID-19 vulnerability.
- Key factors like leadership, culture, and universal health coverage were missing from the original model.
Purpose of the Study:
- To enhance the EPIRISK tool for accurate COVID-19 severity prediction across diverse countries.
- To reparameterize and validate the modified EPIRISK tool against historical and COVID-19 outbreaks.
Main Methods:
- Modified EPIRISK by adding leadership, culture, and universal health coverage as new parameters.
- Developed and validated multiple models using historical (9 countries) and COVID-19 (7 countries) outbreak data.
- Assessed COVID-19 severity using global incidence and mortality rates, categorized into four levels.
Main Results:
- The enhanced EPIRISK tool incorporates 17 parameters (7 disease-related, 10 country-related).
- An algorithm was developed for risk level classification.
- The enhanced tool accurately predicted COVID-19 risk for all seven countries and historical outbreaks.
Conclusions:
- The enhanced EPIRISK tool provides a robust, multifactorial approach to infectious disease outbreak risk analysis.
- It supports rapid epidemic preparedness and response prioritization for global public health professionals.
- The tool is valuable for early warning systems and resource allocation during outbreaks.
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