Modeling naturally-occurring Vibrio parahaemolyticus in post-harvest raw shrimps

There is little known about the growth and survival of naturally-occurring Vibrio parahaemolyticus in harvested raw shrimps. In this study, the fate of naturally-occurring V. parahaemolyticus in post-harvest raw shrimps was investigated from 4℃ to 30℃ using real-time PCR combined with propidium monoazide (PMA-qPCR). The Baranyi-model was used to fit the growth and survival data. A square root model and non-linear Arrhenius model was then used to quantify the parameters derived from the Baranyi-model. The results showed that naturally-occurring V. parahaemolyticus were slowly inactivated at 4℃ and 7℃ with deactivation rates of 0.019 Log CFU/g/h and 0.025 Log CFU/g/h. Conversely, at 15, 20, 25, and 30 °C, the average maximum growth rates (μ_max) of naturally-occurring V. parahaemolyticus were determined to be 0.044, 0.105, 0.179 and 0.336 Log CFU/g/h, accompanied by the average lag phases (λ) of 15.5 h, 7.3 h, 4.4 h and 3.7 h. The validation metrics, A_f and B_f, for both the square root model and non-linear, indicating that the model had a good ability to predict the growth behavior of naturally-occurring V. parahaemolyticus in post-harvest raw shrimps. Furthermore, a comparative exploration between the growth of artificially contaminated V. parahaemolyticus in cooked shrimps and naturally-occurring V. parahaemolyticus in post-harvest raw shrimps revealed intriguing insights. While no substantial distinction in deactivation rates emerged at 4 °C and 7 °C (P > 0.05), a discernible disparity in growth rates was observable at 15 °C, 20 °C, 25 °C, and 30 °C, with the former surpassing the latter. Which indicated the risk of V. parahaemolyticus using models derived from cooked shrimps may be biased. Our study also unveiled a discernible seasonal effect. The μ_max and λ of V. parahaemolyticus in shrimps harvested in summer were similar to those harvested in autumn, while the initial and maximum bacterial concentration harvested in summer were higher than those harvested in autumn. This predictive microbiology model of naturally-occurring V. parahaemolyticus in raw shrimps provides relevance to modelling growth in situ.