Land urbanization and urban CO₂ emissions: Empirical evidence from Chinese prefecture-level cities

Changes in land use and the resulting human practices in the land urbanization process would lead to variations in the function, intensity, and efficiency of CO₂ emissions and greatly influence urban CO₂ emissions. Therefore, using Chinese prefecture-level data for a time period ranging from 2003 to 2017, we systematically examine the mechanism of how land urbanization influences CO₂ emissions based on land-use intensity regulation, land-use structure optimization, and land-use efficiency improvements. First, the benchmark results show that land urbanization's influence on urban CO₂ emissions is significantly positive. This indicates that the consumption effect caused by land urbanization exceeds the agglomeration effect. Furthermore, the results of the nonlinear analysis using the spatial adaptive semi-parametric and semi-parametric spatial dynamic panel models show that the association between land urbanization and carbon emissions demonstrates an inverted U-shaped curve. Simultaneously, land urbanization represents a dynamic cumulative and spatial spillover effect on urban CO₂ emissions. Second, a mechanism analysis reveals that effective land urbanization can promote CO₂ emission reductions through efficiency improvement, structure optimization and proper control of the land-use intensity. Additionally, we analyze heterogeneity in regional differences. In the line with study findings, the central government in China should promote the optimization of territorial spatial governance, optimize energy consumption structures, make comprehensive use of its funds, tax policies, industrial development support, and market-oriented mechanisms, and further optimize the layout of urban space.