Clinical features of HIV positive talaromycosis marneffei patients and development of a risk prediction model

The purpose of this study was to establish and verify a nomogram to predict the prognosis of patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-related talaromycosis marneffei and evaluate the prognosis.

We examined the acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) patients hospitalized in the Fourth People's Hospital of Nanning from 2018 to 2020 with an aetiological diagnosis of Talaromyces marneffei infection. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify the independent risk factors for relapse or death of the prognosis of Talaromyces marneffei infection. According to the regression coefficient, the corresponding nomograph prediction model was drawn.

A total of 400 patients were included, including 321 males and 79 females. Recurrence or death occurred in 70 cases (17.5%). The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC) of the established model was 0.716 with good discrimination, calibration, and clinical effectiveness. The risks of age between 45 and 60 years old and <40 years old were successively higher than that of >60 years old, and the risks of G test <50 pg/ml and >100 pg/ml were higher than that of 50-100 pg/ml. Respiratory failure, decreased albumin and elevated total bilirubin are risk factors for relapse or death in HIV patients infected with Talaromyces marneffei.

This model can accurately predict the prognosis of HIV complicated with Talaromyces marneffei infection.