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Published on: December 9, 2015
Inference and forecasting phase shift regime of COVID-19 sub-lineages with a Markov-switching model
Eul Noh1, Jinwook Hong2, Joonkyung Yoo3
1Freddie Mac , Tysons Corner, Virginia, USA.
Importance:
Using regime-switching models, we attempted to determine whether there is a link between changes in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2) variants and infection waves, as well as forecasting new SARS-Cov-2 variants. We believe that our study makes a significant contribution to the field because it proposes a new approach for forecasting the ongoing pandemic, and the spread of other infectious diseases, using a statistical model which incorporates unpredictable factors such as human behavior, political factors, and cultural beliefs.
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