Supervised machine learning improves general applicability of eDNA metabarcoding for reservoir health monitoring

Effective and standardized monitoring methodologies are vital for successful reservoir restoration and management. Environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding sequencing offers a promising alternative for biomonitoring and can overcome many limitations of traditional morphological bioassessment. Recent attempts have even shown that supervised machine learning (SML) can directly infer biotic indices (BI) from eDNA metabarcoding data, bypassing the cumbersome calculation process of BI regardless of the taxonomic assignment of eDNA sequences. However, questions surrounding the general applicability of this taxonomy-free approach to monitoring reservoir health remain unclear, including model stability, feature selection, algorithm choice, and multi-season biomonitoring. Here, we firstly developed a novel biological integrity index (Me-IBI) that integrates multitrophic interactions and environmental information, based on taxonomy-assigned eDNA metabarcoding data. The Me-IBI can better distinguish the actual health status of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) than physicochemical assessments and have a clear response to human activity. Then, taking this reliable Me-IBI as a supervised label, we compared the impact of selecting different numbers of features and SML algorithms on the stability and predictive performance of the model for predicting ecological conditions in multiple seasons using taxonomy-free eDNA metabarcoding data. We discovered that even with a small number of features, different SML algorithms can establish a stable model and obtain excellent predictive performance. Finally, we proposed a four-step strategy for standardized routine biomonitoring using SML tools. Our study firstly explores the general applicability problem of the taxonomy-free eDNA-SML approach and establishes a solid foundation for the large-scale and standardized biomonitoring application.