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A Rulefit-based prognostic analysis using structured MRI report to select potential beneficiaries from induction
Shuqi Li1, Weijing Zhang1, Baodan Liang1
1Department of Radiology, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Guangdong Key Laboratory of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Diagnosis and Therapy, Guangdong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, No. 651 Dongfeng Road East, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510060, China.
Background And Purpose:
Structured MRI report facilitate prognostic prediction for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). However, the intrinsic association among structured variables is not fully utilised. This study aimed to investigate the performance of a Rulefit-based model in feature integration behind structured MRI report and prognostic prediction in advanced NPC.
Materials And Methods:
We retrospectively enrolled 1207 patients diagnosed with non-metastatic advanced NPC from two centres, and divided into training (N = 544), internal testing (N = 367), and external testing (N = 296) cohorts. Machine learning algorithms including multivariate analysis, deep learning, Lasso, and Rulefit were used to establish corresponding prognostic models. The concordance indices (C- indices) of three clinical and six combined models with different algorithms for overall survival (OS) prediction were compared. Survival benefits of induction chemotherapy (IC) were calculated among risk groups stratified by different models. A website was established for individualised survival visualisation.
Results:
Incorporating structured variables into Stage model significantly improved the prognostic prediction performance. Six prognostic rules with structured variables were identified by Rulefit. OS prediction of Rules model was comparable to Lasso model in internal testing cohort (C-index: 0.720 vs. 0.713, P = 0.100) and achieved the highest C-index of 0.711 in external testing cohort, indicating better generalisability. The Rules model stratified patients into risk groups with significant 5-year OS differences in each cohort, and revealed significant survival benefits from additional IC in high-risk group.
Conclusion:
The Rulefit-based Rules model, with the revelation of intrinsic associations behind structured variables, is promising in risk stratification and guiding individualised IC treatment for advanced NPC.
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