The short-term impact of a referendum on motor vehicle collisions casualties

A referendum took place in Greece on the 5^th of July 2015 to decide whether the suggested bailout would be accepted. Since this was the first one since 1974, the period between the referendum and the subsequent national elections was characterized by increased uncertainty and had spillover effects in many aspects of everyday life. We take advantage of this quasi-experiment to investigate the short-term impact of the referendum on vehicle collisions casualties.

We use data from the daily number of injuries and fatalities caused by vehicle collisions in 2015 and employ a difference-in-differences approach, comparing trends before and after the referendum.

We reveal that the referendum had a short-term impact on road traffic casualties (4.14 more casualties per day), compared to what would have been expected in the absence of the referendum.

The study provides evidence that negative emotions and anxiety, due to uncertainty, could promote dangerous driving behavior. Preventive and traffic control measures may need to be considered by policy makers during periods of uncertainty.