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Updated: Jul 14, 2025

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
Quantitative flood disaster loss-resilience with the multilevel hybrid evaluation model
Rui Yan1, Lulu Liu2, Wanlu Liu1
1Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China.
Building social resilience is key to reducing flood disaster losses. This study quantifies how resilience construction impacts flood damage, offering methods for better disaster adaptation and climate change response.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Disaster Management
- Climate Change Adaptation
Background:
- Global flood disasters are increasing in severity, causing significant loss of life and property.
- While disaster resilience evaluations exist, the role of resilience construction in mitigating flood damage has been under-analyzed.
- Sustainable flood control requires high-resilience social systems to address growing disaster impacts.
Purpose of the Study:
- To propose a research framework for quantifying the relationship between flood disaster loss and resilience construction.
- To develop and apply models for assessing disaster loss and urban resilience.
- To build disaster resilience curves for quantitative evaluation of resilience and its impact on disaster loss.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a mixed-effects (ME) model to assess disaster loss and build disaster intensity-loss curves for multiple cities.
- Employed a multilevel hybrid evaluation model (MHEM) to evaluate urban disaster resilience with high reliability.
- Developed disaster resilience curves to quantitatively link resilience levels with corresponding disaster losses.
Main Results:
- The ME model demonstrated high fitting accuracy for city-specific disaster intensity-loss curves.
- The MHEM proved reliable by integrating multiple methods for consistent resilience evaluation.
- Identified regional disparities in Guangdong Province, with central/southern areas showing low loss/high resilience and northern areas showing high loss/low resilience.
- Found that while increased resilience offers diminishing returns in loss reduction, it significantly reduces loss variability in low-resilience areas.
Conclusions:
- The study provides a quantitative methodology for assessing the impact of resilience construction on flood disaster loss reduction.
- Results offer a basis for comprehensive natural disaster response and adaptation strategies under climate change.
- Highlights the importance of targeted resilience enhancement in areas with high disaster loss and low resilience.
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