Geographic uncertainties in external exposome studies: A multi-scale approach to reduce exposure misclassification

Many studies on environment-health associations have emphasized that the selected buffer size (i.e., the scale of the geographic context when exposures are assigned at people's address location) may affect estimated effect sizes. However, there is limited methodological progress in addressing these buffer size-related uncertainties.

We aimed to 1) develop a statistical multi-scale approach to address buffer-related scale effects in cohort studies, and 2) investigate how environment-health associations differ between our multi-scale approach and ad hoc selected buffer sizes.

We used lacunarity analyses to determine the largest meaningful buffer size for multiple high-resolution exposure surfaces (i.e., fine particulate matter [PM_2.5], noise, and the normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI]). Exposures were linked to 7.7 million Dutch adults at their home addresses. We assigned exposure estimates based on buffers with fine-grained distance increments until the lacunarity-based upper limit was reached. Bayesian Cox model averaging addressed geographic uncertainties in the estimated exposure effect sizes within the exposure-specific upper buffer limits on mortality. Z-tests assessed statistical differences between averaged effect sizes and those obtained through pre-selected 100, 300, 1200, and 1500 m buffers.

The estimated lacunarity curves suggested exposure-specific upper buffer size limits; the largest was for NDVI (960 m), followed by noise (910 m) and PM_2.5 (450 m). We recorded 845,229 deaths over eight years of follow-up. Our multi-scale approach indicated that higher values of NDVI were health-protectively associated with mortality risk (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.917, 95 % confidence interval [CI]: 0.886-0.948). Increased noise exposure was associated with an increased risk of mortality (HR: 1.003, 95 % CI: 1.002-1.003), while PM_2.5 showed null associations (HR:0.998, 95 % CI: 0.997-1.000). Effect sizes of NDVI and noise differed significantly across the averaged and prespecified buffers (p < 0.05).

Geographic uncertainties in residential-based exposure assessments may obscure environment-health associations or risk spurious ones. Our multi-scale approach produced more consistent effect estimates and mitigated contextual uncertainties.