Recurrence of common bile duct stones after endoscopic clearance and its predictors: A systematic review

The primary therapeutic strategy for the management of bile duct stones (BDS) is endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography. However, there may be a recurrence of BDS on follow-up. Multiple risk factors have been studied for the prediction of BDS recurrence. We aimed to analyze the incidence of symptomatic BDS recurrence, systematically review the risk factors, and analyze the most important risk factors among those.

A comprehensive search of three databases was conducted from inception to November 2022 for studies reporting the recurrence of BDS recurrence after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography with clearance, along with an analysis of risk factors.

A total of 37 studies with 12,952 patients were included in the final analysis. The pooled event rate for the recurrence of BDS stones was 12.6% (95% confidence interval: 11.2-13.9). The most important risk factor was a bile duct diameter ≥15 mm, which had a significant association with recurrence in twelve studies. Other risk factors with significant association with recurrence in three or more studies were the reduced angulation of the bile duct, the presence of periampullary diverticulum, type I periampullary diverticulum, in-situ gallbladder with stones, cholecystectomy, multiple stones in the bile duct, use of mechanical lithotripsy, and bile duct stent placement.

Around one out of seven patients have BDS recurrence after the initial endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography. Bile duct size and anatomy are the most important predictors of recurrence. The assessment of risk factors associated with recurrence may help keep a close follow-up in high-risk patients.