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Exploring temperature dynamics in Madhya Pradesh: a spatial-temporal analysis.

Amit Kumar1, Siddharth Kumar2, Kuldeep Singh Rautela3

  • 1School of Humanaties and Social Science, Indian Institute of Technology Indore, Simrol, Indore, Madhya Pradesh, 453552, India.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment
|October 13, 2023
PubMed
Summary

Madhya Pradesh is warming significantly, with accelerated temperature increases observed since the 1990s. This study analyzed temperature trends from 1951-2021, revealing notable changes in mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures.

Keywords:
Central IndiaClimate changeMann-Kendall testPettitt’s testSen’s slope estimatorSpatial-temporal distribution

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Area of Science:

  • Climatology
  • Environmental Science
  • Regional Climate Studies

Background:

  • Understanding regional temperature dynamics is crucial for assessing climate change impacts.
  • Madhya Pradesh, a key state in Central India, experiences significant climatic shifts.
  • Long-term temperature trend analysis provides insights into regional climate change patterns.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the spatial-temporal distribution of temperature changes in Madhya Pradesh from 1951 to 2021.
  • To identify long-term trends and variations in annual mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures.
  • To detect significant change points in temperature trends within the study period.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized gridded temperature data (1° × 1°) from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD).
  • Employed the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen's slope (SS) estimator for trend detection.
  • Applied Pettitt's test for identifying significant change points in temperature data.

Main Results:

  • Observed significant warming trends across Madhya Pradesh, with pronounced warming during winter.
  • Annual mean temperature (Tmean) increased by +0.33 °C (1951-2004 to 2005-2021).
  • Annual maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures showed increases of +0.47 °C (2011-2021) and +0.46 °C (2000-2021), respectively.
  • Warming rates accelerated, particularly since the 1990s.

Conclusions:

  • Madhya Pradesh exhibits significant warming trends, with accelerated rates in recent decades.
  • Detected substantial shifts in mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures, indicating dynamic climate change.
  • Findings underscore the need for regional adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change impacts.