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New prognostic model for hospitalized patients with alcoholic cirrhosis and Maddrey's discriminant function <32
Tae Hyung Kim1,2, Hyung Joon Yim3, Young Kul Jung1
1Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Korea University Ansan Hospital, Korea University Ansan Hospital, 123 Jeokgeum-ro, Danwon-gu, Ansan-si, 15355, Gyeonggi-do, Korea.
Background & Aims:
Few studies have investigated the prognosis of patients with non-severe alcoholic hepatitis (Non-SAH). The study aimed to develop a new prognostic model for patients with especially Non-SAH.
Methods:
We extracted 316 hospitalized patients with alcoholic cirrhosis without severe alcoholic hepatitis, defined as Maddrey's discriminant function score lower than 32, from the retrospective Korean Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure (KACLiF) cohort to develop a new prognostic model (training set), and validated it in 419 patients from the prospective KACLiF cohort (validation set). Prognostic factors for death and liver transplantation were analyzed to construct a prognostic model.
Results:
Twenty-one and 24 patients died within 6 months in both sets, respectively. In the training set, the highest area under the curve (AUC) of conventional prognostic models was 0.765, 0.732, and 0.684 for 1-, 3-, and 6-month mortality, respectively. Refractory ascites, vasopressor use, and hyponatremia were independently associated with mortality of cirrhotic patients with Non-SAH. The new model consisted of four variables: past deterioration, neutrophil proportion > 70%, Na < 128 mmol/L, and vasopressor use. It showed the highest accuracy for short-term mortality in the training and validation sets (0.803 and 0.786; 0.797 and 0.776; and 0.789 and 0.721 for 1-, 3-, and 6-month mortality, respectively).
Conclusion:
There is a group of patients with high risk among those classified as Non-SAH. The new model will help stratifying cirrhotic patients with Non-SAH more accurately in terms of prognosis. The patients with high Non-SAH score need to monitor closely and might be considered for preemptive liver transplantation.
Trial Regestration:
ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02650011.
