The Predictors of Long COVID in Southeastern Italy

Long COVID is now recognized as a common consequence of the SARS-CoV-2 infection, but we are still far from fully understanding its pathogenesis and predictive factors. Many pathophysiological factors have been studied, including ethnicity. To our knowledge, the risk factors for Long COVID have not been studied in Southeastern Italy.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive factors of Long COVID in a cohort of patients from Southeastern Italy.

We conducted a retrospective longitudinal study, enrolling inpatients and outpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 from June 2021 to March 2022. A total of 436 subjects were evaluated in an outpatient setting 12 weeks after a SARS-CoV-2 infection, recording comorbidities, symptoms, therapy, and clinical information. Univariate and multivariate binomial logistic regression analyses were performed on different risk factors to define the probability of developing Long COVID.

A total of 71.8% of patients (313) developed Long COVID, while the remaining 123 (28.3%) had a complete remission of symptoms 3 months after acute infection. During the acute phase of COVID-19, 68.3% of patients experienced respiratory failure and 81.4% received corticosteroid therapy. In a multivariate analysis, the female sex (SEX M ODD 0.513) and corticosteroids (ODD 2.25) were maintained as predictive values.

From our data and in line with other studies, the female sex emerges as a risk factor for Long COVID in the population of Southeastern Italy. Corticosteroid therapy administered in the acute phase also appears to be associated with an increased risk of Long COVID. Although indications for the prescription of corticosteroid therapy in the acute phase were indicated by the presence of pneumonia complicated by respiratory insufficiency, there was an over-prescription of corticosteroid therapy in the real life of our cohort, with 64% of patients having respiratory insufficiency and 81% having corticosteroid therapy. We hypothesize that a synergistic link between viral infection and the side effects of corticosteroid therapy may arise in selected cases.