Machine Learning Predicts Pathologic Complete Response to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy for ER+HER2- Breast Cancer: Integrating Tumoral and Peritumoral MRI Radiomic Features

This study aimed to predict pathologic complete response (pCR) in neoadjuvant chemotherapy for ER+HER2- locally advanced breast cancer (LABC), a subtype with limited treatment response.

We included 265 ER+HER2- LABC patients (2010-2020) with pre-treatment MRI, neoadjuvant chemotherapy, and confirmed pathology. Using data from January 2016, we divided them into training and validation cohorts. Volumes of interest (VOI) for the tumoral and peritumoral regions were segmented on preoperative MRI from three sequences: T1-weighted early and delayed contrast-enhanced sequences and T2-weighted fat-suppressed sequence (T2FS). We constructed seven machine learning models using tumoral, peritumoral, and combined texture features within and across the sequences, and evaluated their pCR prediction performance using AUC values.

The best single sequence model was SVM using a 1 mm tumor-to-peritumor VOI in the early contrast-enhanced phase (AUC = 0.9447). Among the combinations, the top-performing model was K-Nearest Neighbor, using 1 mm tumor-to-peritumor VOI in the early contrast-enhanced phase and 3 mm peritumoral VOI in T2FS (AUC = 0.9631).

We suggest that a combined machine learning model that integrates tumoral and peritumoral radiomic features across different MRI sequences can provide a more accurate pretreatment pCR prediction for neoadjuvant chemotherapy in ER+HER2- LABC.