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FROST 2.0: Factors Predicting Orthopaedic Trauma Volumes - A Validation Study
Martina Vergouwen1, Adina Tarcea2, Darren Van Essen1
1Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive, NW T2N 1N4 Calgary, AB Canada.
Injury
|October 15, 2023
Summary
Winter weather, particularly icy conditions, consistently predicts increases in orthopaedic trauma cases. This validated model can inform resource allocation and prevention strategies for seasonal injury surges.
Area of Science:
- Orthopaedic Surgery
- Public Health
- Environmental Epidemiology
Background:
- Patients and healthcare providers recognize the link between weather, seasons, and orthopaedic trauma.
- Prior research identified winter/summer months and ice/snow as significant predictors of orthopaedic trauma volume surges.
Purpose of the Study:
- To validate a previously established predictive model for orthopaedic trauma volumes.
- To assess the model's external validity using a new dataset from a Canadian city.
Main Methods:
- Replication of original study methods using a new, geographically similar dataset.
- Analysis of orthopaedic trauma data in relation to seasonal and weather variables (month, ice).
Main Results:
- The predictive impact of month and ice on orthopaedic trauma volumes remained consistent with previous findings.
- The validated model demonstrates reliability in predicting trauma surges.
Conclusions:
- The established predictive model for orthopaedic trauma is externally valid.
- The model can effectively guide resource allocation and inform primary prevention strategies for seasonal injuries.
