Risk Factors for Progression to Type 2 Diabetes in a Pediatric Prediabetes Clinic Population

Pediatric type 2 diabetes (T2D) is increasing in prevalence, yet it is unclear what definition of pediatric prediabetes predicts progression to T2D. Strategies are needed to better identify at risk individuals who could benefit from early intervention.

Retrospective chart review of a pediatric prediabetes clinic over 7 years. Inclusion criteria include hemoglobin A1c (HbA1C) and ≥1 glucose from oral glucose tolerance test. Exclusion criteria include type 1 diabetes, maturity onset diabetes of the young, or T2D on initial visit.

A total of 552 patients were included, 6.5% (n = 36) progressed to T2D over 2.4 ± 1.5 years. At initial visit, T2D progressors had a higher body mass index (38.6 ± 6.5 vs 34.2 ± 8.4 kg/m², P = .002), HbA1C (6.0 ± 0.3%, vs 5.7± 0.3, P < .001), 2-hour glucose (141 ± 28 vs 114 ± 29 mg/dL, P < .001), and C-peptide (4.8 vs 3.6 ng/mL, P = .001). Fasting glucose was not significantly different. In a multivariable model, male sex (hazard ratio [HR], 2.4; P = .012), initial visit HbA1C (HR, 1.3 per 0.1% increase; P < .001), and 2-hour glucose level (HR, 1.2 per 10 mg/dL increase; P = .014) were all predictive of T2D progression. Patients who progressed to T2D had an increase in body mass index of 4.2 kg/m² and children consistently taking metformin took longer to progress (43 ± 21 vs 26 ± 16 months; P = .016).

A total of 6.5% of patients with prediabetes developed T2D over a 7-year period. Initial visit laboratory values and weight trajectory may allow for risk stratification, whereas fasting plasma glucose is less helpful. Weight stabilization and metformin therapy could be important interventions for diabetes prevention in children.