A novel clinical-radscore nomogram for predicting ruptured intracranial aneurysm

Our study aims to find the more practical and powerful method to predict intracranial aneurysm (IA) rupture through verification of predictive power of different models.

Clinical and imaging data of 576 patients with IAs including 192 ruptured IAs and matched 384 unruptured IAs was retrospectively analyzed. Radiomics features derived from computed tomography angiography (CTA) images were selected by t-test and Elastic-Net regression. A radiomics score (radscore) was developed based on the optimal radiomics features. Inflammatory markers were selected by multivariate regression. And then 4 models including the radscore, inflammatory, clinical and clinical-radscore models (C-R model) were built. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was performed to evaluate the performance of each model, PHASES and ELAPSS. The nomogram visualizing the C-R model was constructed to predict the risk of IA rupture.

Five inflammatory features, 2 radiological characteristics and 7 radiomics features were significantly associated with IA rupture. The areas under ROCs of the radscore, inflammatory, clinical and C-R models were 0.814, 0.935, 0.970 and 0.975 in the training cohort and 0.805, 0.927, 0.952 and 0.962 in the validation cohort, respectively.

The inflammatory model performs particularly well in predicting the risk of IA rupture, and its predictive power is further improved by combining with radiological and radiomics features and the C-R model performs the best. The C-R nomogram is a more stable and effective tool than PHASES and ELAPSS for individually predicting the risk of rupture for patients with IA.