Global, regional, and national time trends in myocarditis-related mortality, 1990-2019: An age-period-cohort analysis

The aim of this study was to analyze the tendency of myocarditis mortality in 204 countries and areas during the last three decades and its connection with age, epoch, and birth cohort.

The Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study acquired a cause-specific myocarditis mortality estimate. The net drift, as well as the influence caused by age, period, and birth cohort, were evaluated by the age-period-cohort model. Additionally, we analyzed the tendency in research intensity and international collaboration across countries using 3,983 myocarditis-related publications from four periods during 1990-2019.

During the last three decades, 101 of 204 countries and areas experienced an increase (net drifts ≥0.0%) or stagnant declines (≥-0.5%) in the death rate. In particular, increasing death rate was generally discovered in most countries whose Socio-demographic indexes (SDIs) are high and middle-high, such as the United States [net drift=2.11% (95% CI 1.71-2.51)] and Italy [2.65% (1.24-4.08)]. Countries with a higher number of deaths were more active in this field of study, such as the United States (237 publications), China (120), and Italy (73). The United States and Italy, whose total link strengths were 209 and 135, respectively, were more active in international collaborative studies.

Despite the global decrease in myocarditis death rate during the last three decades, negative period and cohort effects and elevated mortality were discovered in numerous countries, especially in those whose SDIs were high, and the age distribution of deaths shifted from adolescent to middle-aged and older populations. We also observed a decline in myocarditis research in some countries with increased mortality.