Threshold dynamics of an almost periodic vector-borne disease model

Area of Science:

• Mathematical epidemiology
• Environmental science
• Public health

Background:

• Many infectious diseases rely on vectors for transmission, and vector life cycles are sensitive to environmental conditions.
• Understanding the influence of environmental variability on disease dynamics is crucial for effective control.
• Previous models often simplify environmental factors, potentially leading to inaccurate predictions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and analyze a mathematical model for vector-borne disease transmission incorporating almost periodic environmental coefficients.
• To investigate the impact of environmental fluctuations on disease dynamics and the basic reproductive number.
• To apply the model to malaria and dengue fever transmission and assess control strategies.

Main Methods:

• Development of a vector-borne disease model with almost periodic coefficients.
• Derivation of the basic reproductive number ([Formula: see text]) and establishment of global dynamics based on this threshold.
• Numerical simulations for malaria and dengue fever, including parameter fitting to real-world data (Guangdong, China) and sensitivity analysis.

Main Results:

• The basic reproductive number can be significantly underestimated when almost periodic environmental coefficients are replaced by their average values.
• Numerical simulations for dengue fever in Guangdong, China, predict a steady increase in cases without enhanced control measures.
• Sensitivity analysis identified key parameters influencing disease transmission: recovery rate, mosquito recruitment and mortality rates, and transmission rates between mosquitoes and humans.

Conclusions:

• Mathematical models incorporating dynamic environmental factors are essential for accurate prediction of vector-borne disease spread.
• Effective control of diseases like dengue fever requires a multi-faceted approach, including vector control, improved treatment, and public health interventions.
• Environmental modification and reducing human-vector contact are critical components of disease prevention strategies.