Quantitative [⁶⁸Ga]Ga-PSMA-11 PET biomarkers for the analysis of lesion-level progression in biochemically recurrent...

[⁶⁸Ga]Ga-PSMA-11 PET has become the standard imaging modality for biochemically recurrent (BCR) prostate cancer (PCa). However, its prognostic value in assessing response at this stage remains uncertain. The study aimed to assess the prognostic significance of radiographic patient-level patterns of progression derived from lesion-level biomarker quantitation in metastatic disease sites. A total of 138 BCR PCa patients with both baseline and follow-up [⁶⁸Ga]Ga-PSMA-11 PET scans were included in this analysis. Tumour response was quantified at the lesion level using commonly used quantitative parameters (SUV_mean, SUV_max, SUV_peak, volume), and patients were classified as systemic, mixed, or no-progression based on these response classifications. A total of 328 matched lesions between baseline and follow-up scans were analysed. The results showed that systemic progressors had a significantly higher risk of death than patients with no progression with SUV_mean demonstrating the highest prognostic value (HR = 5.70, 95% CI = 2.63-12.37, p < 0.001, C-Index = 0.69). Moreover, progressive disease as measured by SUV_mean using the radiographic PSMA PET Progression Criteria (rPPP) was found to be significantly prognostic for patient overall survival (HR = 3.67, 95% CI = 1.82-7.39, p < 0.001, C-Index = 0.65). This work provides important evidence supporting the prognostic utility of PSMA response quantitation in the BCR setting.