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Common patterns between dengue cases, climate, and local environmental variables in Costa Rica: A wavelet approach.

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Climate patterns like the Oceanic Niño Index influence multiannual dengue outbreaks in Costa Rica, preceding cases by nine months. Local environmental factors also impact annual dengue frequency, especially in specific regions.

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Epidemiology
  • Climate Science

Background:

  • Dengue transmission is a global public health challenge, influenced by climate and environmental variability.
  • Costa Rica has experienced endemic dengue since 1993, with diverse microclimates impacting disease spread.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the relationship between climate, local environmental factors, and dengue occurrences in Costa Rica.
  • To identify spatial and temporal dynamics of dengue transmission influenced by environmental drivers.

Main Methods:

  • Time-series analysis using wavelet coherence and clustering analysis.
  • Investigated correlations between climate indices (Oceanic Niño Index, Tropical North Atlantic Index) and dengue frequency.
  • Assessed the influence of local environmental indices on annual dengue frequency.

Main Results:

  • Multiannual dengue frequency (3-year cycle) correlated with climate indices, particularly in Pacific and Central regions.
  • Climate indices led dengue cases by approximately nine months.
  • Annual dengue frequency correlated with local environmental factors in specific regions, leading by less than three months.
  • Clustering analysis revealed non-contiguous groups of cantons with similar climate-driven dengue patterns.

Conclusions:

  • Climate variability significantly influences dengue dynamics across Costa Rica, irrespective of geographic proximity.
  • Local environmental factors play a role in annual dengue frequency, with a shorter lead time.
  • Findings underscore the importance of integrated climate and environmental surveillance for dengue control.