Neurologists in the United States--past, present, and future

Area of Science:

• Medical Workforce Analysis
• Neurology Workforce Trends
• Healthcare Planning

Background:

• The supply of neurologists is crucial for meeting patient care demands.
• Understanding historical trends in neurologist numbers is essential for future workforce planning.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the historical enumeration and projected prevalence of neurologists in the United States.
• To compare the estimated neurologist supply with the projected demand.

Main Methods:

• Data collected on neurologists based on board certification and residency training completion from 1935 to 1984.
• Annual incidence and prevalence of neurologists were calculated.
• Future projections were made up to 2010.

Main Results:

• Annual incidence of new neurologists increased from under 200 to 385 by 1980-1984.
• Prevalence grew from 1,500 in 1950 to an estimated 11,000 by 2000.
• Projected total neurologists to plateau at 12,200 by 2010, with certified neurologists at 9,900.

Conclusions:

• The U.S. neurology workforce experienced substantial growth in the late 20th century.
• Projected neurologist numbers by 2010 fall short of previously estimated needs.
• This suggests a potential future shortage of neurologists.