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Published on: April 13, 2013
Predicting the formation of mixed pattern hemorrhages in ruptured middle cerebral artery aneurysms based on a
Jiafeng Zhou1, Yongchun Chen1, Nengzhi Xia1
1Department of Radiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang 325000, China.
Objective:
Mixed-pattern hemorrhages (MPH) commonly occur in ruptured middle cerebral artery (MCA) aneurysms and are associated with poor clinical outcomes. This study aimed to predict the formation of MPH in a multicenter database of MCA aneurysms using a decision tree model.
Methods:
We retrospectively reviewed patients with ruptured MCA aneurysms between January 2009 and June 2020. The MPH was defined as subarachnoid hemorrhages with intracranial hematomas and/or intraventricular hemorrhages and/or subdural hematomas. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to explore the prediction factors of the formation of MPH. Based on these prediction factors, a decision tree model was developed to predict the formation of MPH. Additional independent datasets were used for external validation.
Results:
We enrolled 436 patients with ruptured MCA aneurysms detected by computed tomography angiography; 285 patients had MPH (65.4%). A multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age, aneurysm size, multiple aneurysms, and the presence of a daughter dome were the independent prediction factors of the formation of MPH. The areas under receiver operating characteristic curves of the decision tree model in the training, internal, and external validation cohorts were 0.951, 0.927, and 0.901, respectively.
Conclusion:
Age, aneurysm size, the presence of a daughter dome, and multiple aneurysms were the independent prediction factors of the formation of MPH. The decision tree model is a useful visual triage tool to predict the formation of MPH that could facilitate the management of unruptured aneurysms in routine clinical work.
Insights
Mixed-pattern hemorrhages (MPH) in ruptured middle cerebral artery (MCA) aneurysms predict poor outcomes. A decision tree model accurately predicts MPH formation using age, aneurysm size, and dome presence, aiding clinical management.
Area of Science:
- Neurosurgery
- Neurology
- Radiology
Background:
- Mixed-pattern hemorrhages (MPH) are common in ruptured middle cerebral artery (MCA) aneurysms.
- MPH are associated with adverse clinical outcomes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To predict the formation of MPH in ruptured MCA aneurysms.
- To develop and validate a decision tree model for MPH prediction.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective review of 436 patients with ruptured MCA aneurysms.
- Logistic regression analysis to identify prediction factors.
- Development and external validation of a decision tree model.
Main Results:
- 65.4% of patients had MPH.
- Independent predictors of MPH included age, aneurysm size, multiple aneurysms, and daughter dome presence.
- Decision tree model achieved high accuracy (AUCs 0.951, 0.927, 0.901 in validation cohorts).
Conclusions:
- Age, aneurysm size, daughter dome, and multiple aneurysms are key predictors of MPH.
- The decision tree model serves as a valuable visual triage tool for managing unruptured aneurysms.
