[Knowledge Graph-Based Prediction of Potentially Inappropriate Medication]

To improve the accuracy of potentially inappropriate medication (PIM) prediction, a PIM prediction model that combines knowledge graph and machine learning was proposed.

Firstly, based on Beers criteria 2019 and using the knowledge graph as the basic structure, a PIM knowledge representation framework with logical expression capabilities was constructed, and a PIM inference process was implemented from patient information nodes to PIM nodes. Secondly, a machine learning prediction model for each PIM label was established based on the classifier chain algorithm, to learn the potential feature associations from the data. Finally, based on a threshold of sample size, a portion of reasoning results from the knowledge graph was used as output labels on the classifier chain to enhance the reliability of the prediction results of low-frequency PIMs.

11 741 prescriptions from 9 medical institutions in Chengdu were used to evaluate the effectiveness of the model. Experimental results show that the accuracy of the model for PIM quantity prediction is 98.10%, the F1 is 93.66%, the Hamming loss for PIM multi-label prediction is 0.06%, and the macroF1 is 66.09%, which has higher prediction accuracy than the existing models.

The method proposed has better prediction performance for potentially inappropriate medication and significantly improves the recognition of low-frequency PIM labels.