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The Wrong Place at the Wrong Time? Territorial Autonomy and Conflict During Regime Transitions
Andreas Juon1, Daniel Bochsler2,3
1ETH Zurich, Switzerland.
Summary
Territorial autonomy can escalate ethnic mobilization and conflict during regime transitions. This effect is amplified when stabilizing factors are weak, leading to concessions and potential violence.
Area of Science:
- Political Science
- Sociology
- International Relations
Background:
- Previous research offers conflicting views on territorial autonomy's impact on ethnic conflict.
- Existing studies often fail to distinguish between stable contexts and volatile transition periods.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze how territorial autonomy influences ethnic mobilization and conflict specifically during regime transitions.
- To investigate the role of stabilizing factors in mediating autonomy's effects during political change.
Main Methods:
- Cross-national statistical analysis of all regime transitions from 1946 to 2017.
- Case study analysis of the 1989 post-communist transitions, focusing on inherited autonomy.
Main Results:
- Territorial autonomy increases ethnic mobilization during regime transitions.
- Autonomy is linked to government concessions, which can lead to violent escalation if not met.
- Inherited autonomy played a significant role in post-communist successor states.
Conclusions:
- The conflict-deescalating effects of territorial autonomy are contingent on stabilizing factors often absent during transitions.
- Territorial autonomy can be a catalyst for ethnic mobilization and conflict during periods of regime change.
Keywords:
civil wardemocratization and regime changeethnic conflictethnicity and politicsfederalismraceMore Related Videos
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