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Published on: February 15, 2022
Development and validation of a predictive model for post-percutaneous nephrolithotomy urinary sepsis: a multicenter
Leibo Wang1,2, Daobing Li3, Wei He1,2
1Department of Surgery, Orthopedic Hospital of Guizhou, Guiyang, China.
A new nomogram model predicts urogenital sepsis after percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL). Key risk factors include positive urine culture, longer operation time, and residual stones, aiding urologists in preoperative planning.
Area of Science:
- Urology
- Nephrology
- Infectious Disease
Background:
- Urogenital sepsis is a significant complication following percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL).
- Identifying predictive factors for sepsis is crucial for patient management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze factors associated with urogenital sepsis post-PCNL.
- To develop and validate a nomogram prediction model for urogenital sepsis after PCNL.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective, multicenter study including 2066 PCNL patients.
- Logistic regression analysis identified risk factors in a training cohort (N.=1139).
- Nomogram model validated internally (N.=484) and externally (N.=443).
Main Results:
- Five independent risk factors identified: positive urine culture (OR=5.29), positive urine nitrite (OR=5.97), operation time ≥60 min (OR=4.4), residual stone (OR=5.18), and stone size ≥30 mm (OR=3.22).
- The nomogram demonstrated strong predictive accuracy with AUCs ranging from 0.804 to 0.948 across validation cohorts.
- Good calibration and clinical utility were confirmed by calibration curves and decision curve analysis.
Conclusions:
- A nomogram model effectively predicts urogenital sepsis risk after PCNL.
- The model incorporates urine culture/nitrite status, operation duration, and stone characteristics.
- This tool can assist urologists in preoperative risk assessment and treatment strategy development.
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