Real-world value of direct-acting antivirals for hepatitis C at Kaiser Permanente Southern California

Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) for chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) lead to cure in more than 95% of recipients; however, payers may limit access to these lifesaving drugs due to high initial cost. Here, the cost-effectiveness of treating HCV with DAAs vs no treatment over a lifetime horizon is evaluated from the perspective of Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC).

A hybrid decision-tree Markov model.

The model simulated the health and economic outcomes for a real cohort of patients with HCV treated with either ledipasvir-sofosbuvir or sofosbuvir-velpatasvir between November 1, 2014, and October 31, 2019, at KPSC. Patients entered the model at different stages of liver disease and received either active treatment with DAAs or no treatment. Patients who did not achieve sustained virological response experienced disease progression; those who achieved sustained virological response experienced either significantly slower or no disease progression depending on the stage of fibrosis at model start. Demographics, treatment experience, genotype, baseline fibrosis stage, treatment rates, and treatment efficacy were sourced from KPSC real-world data. Costs and utilities were sourced from published literature.

A total of 7255 patients with a mean age of 59 years were treated during the study period. Over a lifetime horizon, DAAs resulted in significant reduction in advanced liver disease events and a total cost savings of $1 billion compared with no treatment based on a hybrid decision-tree Markov state-transition model. Cost savings were achieved after only 3 years. DAA intervention dominated no treatment on a per-patient and cohort basis.

DAA treatment at KPSC is predicted to significantly reduce HCV-related morbidity and mortality, providing an anticipated return on investment in drug costs after 3 years of treatment.